WE ARE LIVING IN A DIFFICULT MOMENT

Here are excerpts from the speech of former Minister of Foreign Affairs for Tunisia, Khemaies Jhinaoui, at the opening of the second meeting of Days of Reflection on the strategic positioning of Tunisia.

When I started to take my first steps as a young diplomat almost 45 years ago, the world was already a complicated place.  There was the Eastern Block, the Western one, the Non-Aligned States, Europe still under construction, China that was looking for its path forward, an explosive Middle East subject to interminable wars, and Africa that was left to its own devices.

Nevertheless, faced with the complicated world of that period, there still existed the opportunity to distance oneself somewhat because we were armed with paradigms and concepts that allowed us to analyze the international situation.  However today, not only has the world become even more complex, but also and most importantly we are involved in a search for ‘new paradigms,’ new tools to analyze and explain what is happening in front of our eyes, and to understand the causes of rapid shifts in principles and values which we used to think were unchangeable that served as the bases of the world order after World War II.

Therefore, we are living in a difficult moment, a time when the former balance is being contested and a new balance still needs to be defined.  This is a world that is characterized by the withdrawal of law, by multi-lateral institutions running more and more out of steam, and also the proliferation of conflicts and wars.

Once again, there is the specter of war.  The specter of war that we used to think inconceivable during the expansion of democracy and the triumph of liberalism in the ‘90’s is today a tangible reality in Europe, even with risks of expansion.  No way out from the crisis is contemplated at this point.  On the contrary, Russia repeatedly evokes the taboo of nuclear arms, whereas the opposite side doesn’t view an exit strategy other than a pure and simple defeat of Moscow, while pursuing, not without difficulty, massive shipments of arms to Ukraine.  Since our first meeting in 2022, the world that had its eyes riveted on the inextricable conflict in Ukraine has been shaken up by another war, this time in Gaza, a bloody and dehumanizing war against a civilian population, almost two million strong, locked up in a space not more than 360 square kilometers (the equivalent in size of the city of Tunis).  Israel, the occupying power, has been defying for decades all the UN resolutions and the fundamental principles of international law.

It (Israel) has been pursuing, with the complicit agreement of the international community, a violent and humiliating occupation of Trans Jordan and a sealed and inhumane blockade of the Gaza strip.  Israel’s successive governments, both on the right and on the left, have systematically worked to undermine the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people for self government and have prevented by all possible means, including recourse to systematic violence and segregationist politics, the creation of a sovereign independent Palestinian state on its national territory.

The Global South

In this context of geopolitical tensions appears a “global south”, dissatisfied with the status quo, which increasingly demands its place on the world chessboard, not only on an economic, commercial and technological basis but also and more importantly, on a basis for deciding issues.  It’s a new essential given that will certainly contribute to fashioning tomorrow’s world order.  This ‘global south’ is a reality that is here to stay.  It consists of a synthesis of resentments on the part of emerging powers that believe the UN system which came into being in 1945 is not only unjust but especially outdated in that it no longer conforms to the reality of the relations of the geopolitical powers of the 21st century.  From now on, we can ask the question whether we are not in the process of sliding towards a world order where confrontations and wars are getting the upper hand over bilateral, multilateral and interregional negotiations, and where relations based on force are becoming the sole determining factor regarding the development of international relations.

Democracy in Danger

The year 2024 represents a record electoral year.  Half of the world population of voting age is summoned to the ballot box.  Several presidential, legislative and regional elections are taking place in 68 countries, and not the least important ones.  Among them are the US, Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Mexico, in other words, eight out of ten of the world’s  most populous countries.

If the outcome of some elections remains uncertain, other votes are already played out in advance, either because some systems don’t tolerate alternation, or because voters, carried away by populism that is already in place in certain countries, prefer to continue it in the illusory hope of a better future.  Whatever the case may be, the year 2024 will be a time of paradoxical crossroads marked both by ruptures and by electoral consolidations which will have a fundamental impact on the course of international relations.

One thing is certain.  Democracy in the world has seen better days.  The increase in populism and autocracy in a number of countries, especially in the south, and the fiery increase of extreme right movements particularly in Europe, risk accelerating rejection phenomena, exacerbating conflicts and enlarging the gap between North and South.

Global Outlook

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