Is an all-out Israel-Hezbollah War Imminent?
After Israel's recent impressive "Hollywood-inspired" successes against Hezbollah, and the deeply targeted mass airstrikes in areas of Lebanon, the tough question that arises is whether this escalation leads to a ground invasion and eventually to the 3rd Lebanon War! With a war objective as set by the Israeli Government, the return of approximately 60 thousand displaced Israeli citizens to their communities on the border with Lebanon, what happened last week and with the transfer of two Divisions to the area, one of which, the 98th was withdrawn from Khan Yunis in the Gaza Strip where it was operating, the "North" as the Israelis say is turning into a primary front and the conflict is entering a new phase.
From a military perspective, an invasion of the Israeli Ground Forces in South Lebanon would have been expected immediately after the explosions on over 3000 pagers of Hezbollah leaders and other lower level commanders on September 17. This was the most important blow suffered by Hezbollah, as even the Leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah admitted and what also followed in communications the next day. Initially it was estimated by some circles that the specific time the explosions occurred, was imposed because Hezbollah had begun to suspect sabotage.
But everything now shows that the timing of the explosions was premeditated as part of a long-term strategic plan that left the ground invasion as a last option with the primary purpose of significantly weakening or possibly defeating this terrorist organization and forcing it to stop action against Israel without exposing it to a ground operation. The ground operation would in all likelihood provoke a general war with all the risks inherent in such a case.
It certainly makes sense that the infliction of significant casualties which the Israelis estimate far more than the 37 dead and hundreds of wounded given by Hezbollah, the paralysis of the communications system and undoubtedly the huge psychological effect, have reduced its fighting capability, while important information was obtained about the positions where the commanders were at the time of the explosions. With Hezbollah "fighters" now feeling vulnerable and powerless, Israel is relentlessly pounding their positions and military installations from fortifications to launcher bases and ammunition depots most of which are in buildings in urban areas where civilians live. It is estimated that these are the most massive attacks since 2006. Unfortunately, in addition to the losses suffered this Shiite organization, there are also many civilians who remained in the affected areas despite the notice for their removal sent by the Israelis.
We can conclude that having detailed mapping, excellent intelligence and "indicators" that allow for precision strikes like the one that killed the "Radwan" Elite Force Chief and of course a global terrorist Ibrahim Akil along with 15 other Hezbollah commanders in the basement of an alleged secret compound in the Dahiyeh suburb south of Beirut, Israel is implementing a systematic plan to significantly weaken Hezbollah and force it to stop its war of attrition against Israel. This would allow the displaced Israeli civilians to return their homes.
The statements of Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallad prove this Coercive Strategy That is, there will be much more and stronger blows if they do not stop hitting Israel by waging a war of attrition. And now we come to the crucial question of how Hezbollah and Iran will now react. Will he proceed with some spectacular action if of course he has such a possibility that it will cause an –all out regional war which, however, no one apart from Hamas and Sinwar want?
Hezbollah is a state within a state in Lebanon and unlike the Palestinians it does not try to create a separate state! But it pursues to be a powerful politico-religious community, strong militarily and to remain Iran's long arm in the region. It has made careful calculations of the effects and consequences of an escalation that would drive an all out war! So far it has put just enough pressure on Israel to keep the fighting force credible and to wear Israel down but not so much as to cause massive damage to both its position and capabilities. It can produce ... lionization but in practice it shows otherwise and avoids destabilizing Lebanon because as the experienced Middle East British former Diplomat John Raine says it just needs a.. "host"! He may have created significant problems in Israel in the 2nd Lebanon War or the 34-day War, but Hassan Nasrallah, realizing the enormous damage he did to his Organization and to Lebanon in general, said in August 2006 that "if I had known that the kidnapping of Israeli Soldiers would trigger a war, I wouldn't have ordered this! Dean Shmuel pointed out in an article in the Jerusalem Post on September 23 that the Hezbollah Chief is between a "hammer and an anvil" i.e. between Iran's "proxy" property and protector to present the "Axis of Resistance" of all proxies in the region and a Lebanese State that is collapsing along with its Organization. Nasrallah's main goal is the continuation of political and military dominance in Lebanon.
You could ask me after the above mentioned whether a "total war" between Israel and Hezbollah with the possible involvement of other parties is being avoided. A definitive answer cannot be given, but we emphasize the fact that no one wants a total war and this simply reduces the likelihood to happen. Beyond what is generally said, the interests of Iran, Hezbollah and primarily Israel are leading things to a state of cynical and extremely dangerous ...coexistence! Against the ground invasion where the Israeli Army will be forced to pursue the Hezbollah "fighters" all the way to Beirut with what this means in human losses and means as well as time, it chooses coercion!
But if this strategy does not force Nasrallah to stop the attacks against Israel, then it is estimated that in the first phase Israel will escalate more with more massive strikes even in the Dahiyeh suburb, Hezbollah's stronghold in southern Beirut, and of course in Lebanese government infrastructures in order to force Lebanon as a State to take action against Hezbollah. For now the Sunni Prime Minister of Lebanon Najib Mikati only accuses Israel of violating his sovereignty but dare not say anything about Hezbollah which is the one who undermines it. The last option, of course, remains the land invasion and the ground maneuver , but with Hezbollah maintaining the ability to hit Israel's strategic locations with even ballistic missiles and not entirely neutralizing the threat of Hezbollah. Last but not least the Haaretz analyst mention in his relevant article that wrote that the Veteran Lebanese journalist Ali Hamade highlighted in an article on the Annahar newspaper's site. "The assessment was that Israel would not enter a long war in Gaza, but it entered such a war and is still fighting," !
The military pressure of Israel is growing all the time with the strategic goal to make the situation unbearable for Hezbollah and force it into a cease-fire regardless of what happens in the Gaza Strip. Its survival and continued dominance in Lebanon are probably worth more than be destroyed by Israel. Resolution 1701/2006 of the UN Security Council, which was unfortunately never implemented with the removal of the armed units north of the Litani River, must be a platform for discussion and political settlement that leads to a truce and the return of displaced Israelis and Lebanese of South Lebanon to their homes!
Lt General (ret) Konstantinos Loukopoulos
This article originally issued on the Athens Greece Website “The President” on 24th September